Construction and Validation of an Anticipatory Thinking Assessment

Abstract

Anticipatory thinking is a critical cognitive skill for successfully navigating complex, ambiguous systems in which individuals must analyze system states, anticipate outcomes, and forecast future events. For example, in military planning, intelligence analysis, business, medicine, and social services, individuals must use information to identify warnings, anticipate a spectrum of possible outcomes, and forecast likely futures in order to avoid tactical and strategic surprise. Existing methods for examining anticipatory thinking skill have relied upon task-specific behavioral measures or are resource-intensive, both of which are challenging to scale. Given the increasing importance of anticipatory thinking in many domains, developing a generic assessment of this skill and identifying the underlying cognitive mechanisms supporting it are paramount. The work reported here focuses on the development and validation of the anticipatory thinking assessment (ANTA) for measuring the divergent generative process of anticipatory thinking. Two-hundred and ten participants completed the ANTA, which required them to anticipate possible risks, opportunities, trends, or other uncertainties associated with a focal topic. Responses to the anticipatory thinking and divergent thinking tasks were rated by trained raters on a five-point scale according to the uniqueness, specificity, and remoteness of responses. Results supported the ANTA's construct validity, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. We also explored the relationship between the ANTA scores and certain psychological traits and cognitive measures (need for cognition, need for closure, and mindfulness). Our findings suggest that the ANTA is a psychometrically valid instrument that may help researchers investigate anticipatory thinking in new contexts.

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