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Estimates for the start of Lapita pottery in the Bismarck Archipelago, Papua New Guinea, have ranged from 3550-3450 cal.BP to 3300-3200 cal.BP.These estimates in turn overlap date ranges of 3480-3150 cal.BP and of 3360-3040 cal.BP for the W-K2 volcanic eruption in northern New Britain and reoccupation of the area by people with Lapita pottery (Petrie and Torrence 2008, 95.4 per cent probability).Here we review issues surrounding existing 14 C dates for the start of Lapita pottery throughout the archipelago and present six new dates for the Makekur Lapita site in the Arawe Islands.Based on a non-Bayesian assessment of the dates, we estimate a possible start of Lapita pottery around 3250-3150 cal.BP, at the late end of the ranges for the Witori eruption and reoccupation of the Willaumez Peninsula and close to initial dates for the Lapita expansion into Remote Oceania.Refinement of this estimate for the introduction of pottery to the Bismarck Archipelago through application of Bayesian statistics requires resolution of issues relating to existing dates and pottery analyses, and incorporation of results from current and planned redating programs of Lapita pottery sites within the archipelago.
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