Articlehybrid2020

What to expect from the price of healthy and unhealthy foods over time? The case from Brazil

Emanuella Gomes Maia · Camila Mendes dos Passos · Renata Bertazzi Levy · Ana Paula Bortoletto Martins · Laís Amaral Mais · Rafael Moreira Claro

138 citations0/0 files storedPublic Health Nutrition

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Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing Consumer Attitudes and Food Labeling

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To measure change in price of food groups over time (1995-2030) in Brazil, considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. DESIGN: Data from the Household Budget Survey (2008-2009 HBS) and the National System of Consumer Price Indexes (NSCPI) were used to create a data set containing monthly prices for the foods and beverages most consumed in the country (n 102), from January 1995 to December 2017. Data on price of foods and beverages from 2008-2009 HBS (referring to January 2009) were used to calculate real price over time using the monthly variation in prices from NSCPI. All prices were deflated to December 2017. Foods and beverages were classified following the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. The monthly price for each food group and subgroup was used to analyse changes in prices from 1995 to 2017 and to forecast prices up to 2030 using fractional polynomial models. SETTING: Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: National estimates of foods and beverages purchased for Brazil. RESULTS: In 1995, ultra-processed foods were the most expensive group (R$ 6·51/kg), followed by processed foods (R$ 6·44/kg), then unprocessed or minimally processed foods and culinary ingredients (R$ 3·45/kg). Since the early 2000s, the price of ultra-processed foods underwent successive reductions, becoming cheaper than processed foods and reducing the distance between it and the price of the other group. Forecasts indicate that unhealthy foods will become cheaper than healthy foods in 2026. CONCLUSIONS: Food prices in Brazil have changed unfavourably considering the Brazilian Dietary Guidelines' recommendations. This may imply a decrease in the quality of the population's diet.

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2013Ultra‐processed products are becoming dominant in the global food system 2018Obesity and the food system transformation in Latin America 2010The cost of US foods as related to their nutritive value 2017The prospective impact of food pricing on improving dietary consumption: A systematic review and meta-analysis 2017Policy lessons from health taxes: a systematic review of empirical studies 2018Evaluating the 2014 sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Chile: An observational study in urban areas 2018Did high sugar-sweetened beverage purchasers respond differently to the excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico?2017The potential impact of food taxes and subsidies on cardiovascular disease and diabetes burden and disparities in the United States

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