A NOTE ON CAUSALITY RELATIONS AMONG ECONOMIC GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AND TRADE OPENNESS IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES

Abstract

This article tests for causality relations among economic growth, official development assistance and openness-to-trade in low income countries. A recently developed Granger causality testing methodology based on Bayesian estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) systems is employed in this study. Findings suggest a direct, unidirectional causality from official development assistance to economic growth in Chad, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Gambia and Sierra Leone. In Chad and the Gambia, regression coefficients are found to be negative, suggesting a negative impact of foreign aid on economic growth. We therefore fail to provide clear-cut empirical evidence in support of aid effectiveness. Test results suggest unidirectional causality from opennessto- trade to economic growth in Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Gambia, Rwanda, Mali, Niger and Togo. In all these countries, except Democratic Republic of the Congo, the mean estimation beta is positive, providing some support for the trade-led growth hypothesis. For Chad, Rwanda, Malawi and Madagascar we find evidence for positive, unidirectional causality in reverse direction, that is, from economic growth to openness-to-trade. Finally, in Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali we find evidence that foreign aid inflows Granger-cause and enhance openness-to-trade.

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