When will China achieve its carbon emission peak? A scenario analysis based on optimal control and the STIRPAT model

Kai Su · Chien-Ming Lee

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Energy, Environment, Economic Growth Climate Change Policy and Economics Renewable energy and sustainable power systems

Abstract

China is the largest greenhouse gas emitter around the world, and is committed to achieving an emissions peak by 2030. Although some studies have identified methods to project the emissions trajectory, they have disregarded the effect of abatement capacity of highly successful Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects (i.e. abatement knowledge stock) over the past decade. In addition, the literature lacks evidence to justify results, with several questions, such as when the emissions peak will be reached and how much carbon will be emitted at the peak, remaining unaddressed. This study introduces both theoretical and empirical model for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions peak in China. The findings revealed that there is potential to reach a carbon emissions peak, estimated at 117.70 MtCO2e, by 2028. The policy implications indicated that carbon pricing and the nation-wide Emissions Trading Scheme are the most important instruments to facilitate energy transition and clean coal technology (i.e. carbon capture and storage) development. This implies that the carbon price and carbon abatement investment may need to be greater than US$32.5/tCO2e and US$57,370,000/year to meet Paris Agreement goals by 2030 in China.

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References

2003STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts 2016A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies 1996Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations 2000Optimal CO2 Abatement in the Presence of Induced Technological Change 1999Induced technological change and the attractiveness of CO2 abatement policies 1993Rolling the ‘DICE’: an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases 2018Can China achieve its carbon emission peaking? A scenario analysis based on STIRPAT and system dynamics model 2014Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China

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