The impact of macroprudential policies on industrial growth

Abstract

This paper analyzes the causal impact of macroprudential policies on growth, using industry-level data for 89 countries for the period 1990 to 2021. The small industry size creates exogenous identification, avoiding reverse-causality. I find macroprudential tightening measures impact manufacturing growth negatively, but only for industries with high external finance dependence. This effect is stronger during banking crises, higher growth periods and for advanced economies. The effect is weaker during periods of high private credit growth. Prudential policies implemented before the pandemic mitigated the fall in growth. Growth effects on externally dependent industries are economically sizeable and can persist over three years.

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