Research on the rapid assessment of earthquake casualties based on the anti-lethal levels of buildings

Chaoxu Xia · Gaozhong Nie · Xiwei Fan · Junxue Zhou · Huayue Li · Xiaoke Pang

25 citations0/0 files storedGeomatics Natural Hazards and Risk

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Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies Disaster Management and Resilience Seismic Performance and Analysis

Abstract

This article focuses on the rapid assessment of possible numbers of casualties after an earthquake. We use data on earthquake casualties to study and verify the relationship between casualties and building types, building anti-lethal levels, seismic intensity and other influencing factors. A rapid assessment method for casualties based on buildings’ anti-lethal level is proposed. The method first uses the anti-lethal level and proportions of various types of buildings to obtain the overall anti-lethal level of the study area. Second, according to historical casualty data, the casualty rate of each intensity in the study area is obtained. On this basis, a rapid assessment matrix of casualties is constructed based on the overall anti-lethal level of the study area and the casualty rate of each intensity. Finally, we make a rapid assessment of casualties based on a matrix model. Through the verification of 7 selected historical earthquakes, we find that the data on casualties obtained based on this method are close to the actual number of casualties. The resulting casualty parameters are described against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in China, and the error rates of earthquakes in Lancang-Gengma, Yushu, Lushan Min county-Zhang county and Changning are 4.1%, 25.27%, 12.75%, 2% and 7.69%, respectively. The error is relatively small, within 50%, and a more accurate evaluation result is obtained. Our findings illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of a rapid assessment method for casualties based on anti-lethal levels.

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References

1992Factors determining human casualty levels in earthquakes: Mortality prediction in building collapse.2002Estimation of the Expected Number of Casualties Caused by Strong Earthquakes 2012Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach 2009Estimating Casualties for Large Earthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach

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2025A spatiotemporal casualty assessment method caused by earthquake falling debris of building clusters considering human emergency behaviors 2020Post-earthquake medical evacuation system design based on hierarchical multi-objective optimization model: An earthquake case study 2021A new model for the quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties based on the correction of anti-lethal level 2023A composite database of casualty-inducing earthquakes in mainland China

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