Development of optimal water supply plan using integrated fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods—Case study of the Gamasiab basin

Amir Noori · Hossein Bonakdari · Khosro Morovati · Bahram Gharabaghi

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making Water resources management and optimization Optimization and Mathematical Programming

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a novel method for the development of an optimal water supply plan showcased using data from the Gamasiab basin, located in Kermanshah province, Iran, concerning new dams that are being constructed in this semi‐arid region. In this paper, a new group multi‐criteria decision‐making (MCDM) plan is proposed by combining two MCDM methods based on the fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy ELECTRE III methods that convert the experts' opinions to triangular fuzzy numbers based on the level of uncertainty associated with various quantitative and qualitative criteria. Considering the opinions of four non‐stakeholder experts and data analysis using the fuzzy Delphi method, the criteria were evaluated. Then, by analysing the results using the fuzzy ELECTRE III method, the final ranking of scenarios is obtained. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the decision‐making system in scenarios ranking. The total expense, flood control, reservoir capacity and diversion and water transfer played a significant role in selecting the optimal scenario. Additionally, a hydrologic model was developed to evaluate the performance of the optimal scenario in terms of qualitative criteria. The data indicated that there was a good agreement between the results obtained from the hydrological model and the scenario ranking by the employed method. Altogether, a comparison of the proposed method with other MCDM methods, including fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy technique for order preference by simulation of ideal solution, indicated that the results of the employed method matched more closely to the local experts' opinion.

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References

1965Fuzzy sets 1963An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts 1996Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP 2000Extensions of the TOPSIS for group decision-making under fuzzy environment 2012Models, Methods, Concepts & Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process 1994Analytical hierarchy process 2009PROMETHEE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications 1995Multiple Attribute Decision Making

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