The Mother of All Sudden Stops: Capital Flows and Reversals in Europe, 1919-32

Olivier Accominotti · Barry J. Eichengreen

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Global Financial Crisis and Policies Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Historical Economic and Social Studies

Abstract

We present new data documenting European capital issues in major financial centers from 1919 to 1932.Push factors (conditions in international capital markets) perform better than pull factors (conditions in the borrowing countries) in explaining the surge and reversal in capital flows.In particular, the sharp increase in stock market volatility in the major financial centers at the end of the 1920s figured importantly in the decline in foreign lending.We draw parallels with Europe today.

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References

2012Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment 2011Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator 2011The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis 2011Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis 2009The rise and fall of the dollar (or when did the dollar replace sterling as the leading reserve currency?)2009Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880–1913 1997Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data 2002Sovereign Risk, Credibility and the Gold Standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31

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