Winners and Losers from COVID-19: Global Evidence from Google Search

Kibrom A. Abay · Kibrom Tafere · Andinet Woldemichael

92 citations0/0 files storedWorld Bank, Washington, DC eBooks

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COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts COVID-19 epidemiological studies COVID-19 and healthcare impacts

Abstract

As COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc across the world, researchers are attempting to quantify the economic fallout from the pandemic as it continues to unfold. Estimating the economic impacts of a prevailing pandemic is fraught with uncertainties about the epidemiology of the disease and the breadth of disruption of economic activities. This paper employs historical and near real-time Google search data to estimate the immediate impacts of COVID-19 on demand for selected services across 182 countries. The analysis exploits the temporal and spatial variations in the spread of the virus and finds that demand for services that require face-to-face interaction, such as hotels, restaurants and retail trade, has substantially contracted. In contrast, demand for services that can be performed remotely or provide solutions to the challenges of reduced personal interactions, such as information and communications technology (ICT), and deliveries, has increased significantly. In a span of three months, the pandemic has resulted in a 63 percent reduction in demand for hotels, while increasing demand for ICT by a comparable rate. The impacts appear to be driven by supply contractions, due to social distancing and lockdown measures, and demand shocks as consumers shelter in place, with the latter dominating for most services. The magnitude of the changes in demand varies considerably with government responses to the pandemic.

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2012Predicting the Present with Google Trends 2020How many jobs can be done at home?2019Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: an Intergenerational Perspective*2020Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty 2020How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic 2011Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements 2020COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends 2011Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. Google trends

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