The Current Demographic Context of National Growth and Development

Abstract

This statement reviews two emergent demographic trends: (1) The onset of population decline in many parts of metropolitan areas surrounding central cities; and (2) The revival of population growth in areas remote from metropolitan development. These transformations of population settlement through migration are engendering persistent imbalances assocated with decline and growth. The decline of population within entire metropolitan areas (not merely their central cities) foreshadows an increasing need to adapt to decline, or at least to a halt in growth. In some places, it will be necessary to adapt the local fiscal system to property values and sales tax revenues that no longer grow, excess schools and other capital stock, and changes in population mix; elsewhere adaptation may point to prosperous stability or decline. The revival of population growth in nonmetropolitan areas also carries important implications. Numerous small governmental jurisdictions are likely to experience growth which they are ill-equipped to cope with and which their residents may vigorously oppose. Resistance to growth may be matched by potentially overwhelming exploitation of growth in areas endowed with newly valuable energy resources. More generally, issues of access--by whom, to what place, and for what purpose--are likely to intensify.

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