On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of India with each of its fourteen partners

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on India’s exports to and imports from each of its 14 largest trading partners. We find evidence of short-run asymmetric effects in almost all cases that translate into long-run asymmetric effects in almost half of the sample. The findings are partner specific. For the largest trading partner, China with 11.17% of trade share, we found that increase in real rupee–yuan volatility has significantly positive effects on India’s exports to China but decrease in volatility has no effects. In the case of the second largest partner, the US, with 10.48% share of trade, increase in real rupee–dollar volatility has positive long-run effects on both India’s export to and imports from the US but decrease in volatility has no impact on either.

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