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The macroeconomy as a random forest
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The macroeconomy as a random forest (2024)The macroeconomy as a random forestGovernment Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data (2017)Government Spending Multiplie…FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research (2015)FRED-MD: A Monthly Database f…Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion (2013)Fiscal Multipliers in Recessi…Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy (2012)Measuring the Output Response…Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast? (2007)Why Has U.S. Inflation Become…MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions (2007)MIDAS Regressions: Further Re…Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy? (2006)Were There Regime Switches in…Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy (2005)Time Varying Structural Vecto…Comparing Predictive Accuracy (2002)Comparing Predictive AccuracyEvolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics (2001)Evolving Post-World War II U.…Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory* (2000)Monetary Policy Rules and Mac…Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators (1998)Predicting U.S. Recessions: F…New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators (1989)New Indexes of Coincident and…Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions (1983)Forecasting and Conditional P…Econometric policy evaluation: A critique (1976)Econometric policy evaluation…The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures (1965)The Distributed Lag Between C…A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle (1989)Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models (1996)Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections (2005)Public Debt and Low Interest Rates (2019)Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses (2021)Measuring Geopolitical Risk (2022)Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series (1971)Macroeconomics and Reality (1980)An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area (2003)Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach (2007)Introductory Econometrics for Finance (2008)A Theory of the Consumption Function (1960)Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs. (1973)The Role of Monetary Policy (1995)Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes? (2006)Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework (1996)Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis (1999)The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective (1999)Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change With Unknown Change Point (1993)Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? (2002)Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks (2011)Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks (2013)The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks (2010)When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large? (2011)Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers (2013)Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy (2005)Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference (2009)Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach (2010)Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation (2016)Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US (2005)INTEREST AND PRICES: FOUNDATIONS OF A THEORY OF MONETARY POLICY (2005)Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (2020)The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns (1996)The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems (1999)Does Anything Beat 5-Minute RV? A Comparison of Realized Measures Across Multiple Asset Classes (2012)Applications of deep learning in stock market prediction: Recent progress (2021)Machine learning in the Chinese stock market (2021)
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References

  • 1976Econometric policy evaluation: A critique6,104 cited
  • 2000Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory*4,631 cited
  • 2005Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy3,044 cited
  • 2012Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy1,915 cited
  • 1989New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators1,795 cited
  • 2002Comparing Predictive Accuracy1,745 cited
  • 2007Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?1,719 cited
  • 2006Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?1,607 cited
  • 2017Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data1,435 cited
  • 1983Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions1,209 cited
  • 1998Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators1,180 cited
  • 1965The Distributed Lag Between Capital Appropriations and Expenditures1,133 cited
  • 2007MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions1,003 cited
  • 2001Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics914 cited
  • 2015FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research908 cited

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  • 2013Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion815 cited
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