A method for quick capital cost estimation of biorefineries beyond the state of the art

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents the ‘process blocks build‐up estimating’ method for the capital cost estimation of biorefineries at Technology Readiness Levels 2 to 3 with a −50% to +100% accuracy, corresponding to a Class 5 estimate. Through systematic cost modeling, the method introduces a modular approach to cost estimation by breaking down a biorefinery into its major process blocks and using separate cost power functions. Suitable cost parameters (exponents and reference capital costs) for 11 biochemical, chemical and thermochemical biorefinery types are developed, as well as reference block efficiencies for estimating the costs of biorefineries within and beyond the state of the art. A framework for uncertainty modeling is also proposed to decide on contingencies for a biorefinery investment. The cost models are addressed to the biorefinery community, from experimental chemists to process engineers and decision makers, to assist them in selecting optimal pathways and budgeting new projects. The modular estimation approach is illustrated with a simple example on a biodiesel plant and a first‐of‐a‐kind polyhydroxybuturate (PHB) plant. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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