Development of a multinomial logitmodel to choose a transportation mode for intercity travel

Abstract

Reducing the share of the use of automobiles in intercity passenger transportation is one of the ways to achieve the goals of sustainable development in transport that could positively affect the environment. The purpose of this work is to determine, based on the analysis of the results of polling conducted in the city of Lviv, Ukraine, trends in the selection of an external transport hub (ETH) by the transportation system users for a subsequent intercity trip. To this end, a multinomial logit model of ETH selection has been constructed, based on calculating the utility of students' choice of a railway and a bus hub. Multi-nominal logit models (MLM) are widely used to simulate the behavior of users, as evidenced by numerous studies. Their correct application requires that a set of factors should be defined that influence making a choice and the MLM coefficients should be calculated, based on studying users' behavior within a specific design area. The factors affecting the choice of a type of an external transport hub are the characteristics of an ETH (the throughput and the number of dispatches in a certain direction) and the duration and cost of a trip. The impact of these factors differs depending on the trip length: we have calculated the MLM coefficients for selecting an ETH type separately for travel up to 100 km in length, from 100 to 200 km, and more than 200 km. In addition, such indicators as the duration of a city trip and the time interval of dispatching were introduced in the model; however, the process of calculating the significance of the logit-model parameters revealed that these indicators did not exert significant influence on the users within the studied group. The result of this study is the defined characteristics of the performed trips with the hub-based distribution. The data obtained would contribute to a better understanding of the behavior of users of this class when they choose the mode of intercity travel and could be used to optimize the functioning of external transport hubs

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