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Expert Political Judgment
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(2015)Therapist Expertise in Psychotherapy Revisited (2017)The Handbook of experimental economics (1995)A Theory of Fairness, Competition, and Cooperation (1999)z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments (2007)Eliciting beliefs: Proper scoring rules, incentives, stakes and hedging (2013)Experimental methods: Eliciting beliefs (2021)Is No News (Perceived As) Bad News? An Experimental Investigation of Information Disclosure (2021)On the social psychology of the psychological experiment: With particular reference to demand characteristics and their implications. 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  • 2013Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis264 cited
  • 2009Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method247 cited
  • 2011Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world231 cited
  • 2009The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events196 cited
  • 2008Toward a New Theory of Institutional Change191 cited
  • 2022Why Do We Speak to Experts? Reviving the Strength of the Expert Interview Method189 cited
  • 2012Democratic Reason143 cited
  • 2014Belief Elicitation: A Horse Race among Truth Serums140 cited
  • 2009Enhancing the Development of Professional Performance: Implications from the Study of Deliberate Practice111 cited
  • 2015Diplomacy's value: creating security in 1920s Europe and the contemporary Middle East82 cited
  • 2015To be a diplomat abroad: Diplomatic practice at embassies79 cited
  • 2011Without judgment: An empirically-based entrepreneurial theory of the firm75 cited
  • 2023Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change74 cited
  • 2014How Smart is Democracy? You Can't Answer that Question a Priori66 cited

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  • 2021Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda64 cited
  • 2014False polarization: debiasing as applied social epistemology61 cited