A Comparison of Models for Predicting Discretionary Accruals: A Cross-Country Analysis

Abstract

In this study, we examined various aspects of discretionary accruals. We compared the power of Jones Model (JM), Modified Jones Model (MJM) and Performance Matched Model (PMM). Furthermore, we tested whether accruals derived from cash flow approach or balance sheet approach provide better results and we investigated the significance of country and industry control variables in models. In order to perform these tests, we constructed thirty equations. The data consists of 319 non-financial companies over five years in the GCC region. We used panel data regression models, and testing suggests us to use random effect model as the most suitable one. The results show that PMM has the highest explanatory power among models and it is followed by JM and MJM, consecutively. Secondly, results reveal that accruals derived from cash flow approach provide more accurate results. Moreover, country dummies are significant in models with cash flow approach and they lose significance in balance sheet approach. We differentiated industries due to two different classifications: the first group with higher number of industries is more precise compared to the second group with a narrower scope and lower number of industries. The model including both industrial and country-wise dummies scores highest in significance.

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