The CO2 Emissions Drivers of Post-Communist Economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Abstract

Abstract Background. The CO2 emissions became a key environmental contaminant which is responsible for climate change in general and global warming in particular. Two geographical groups of countries that previously belonged to the former bloc of socialist countries are used for the estimations of CO2 emissions drivers of post-communist economies. The research covers such Eastern European countries as Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russian Federation, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, and Ukrainian territory as treated by international law and such Central Asian states as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the period 1996-2018. The main goal of the research is to identify common drivers that determine carbon dioxide emissions in selected states. To control for the time fixed affects (like EU membership) random effect model was used for the analysis of panel data set.Results. It is found that energy efficiency has a negative influence on per capita CO2 emissions and an increase in GDP by 100 USD per 1 ton of oil decreases per capita CO2 emissions from 17 to 64 kg per capita. That is the more energy efficient the economy becomes, the less CO2 emissions per capita it produces. Unlike energy efficiency, an increase in GDP per capita by 1000 USD increases CO2 emissions by 260 kilograms per capita, and the richer the economy becomes, the more CO2 emissions per capita it generates. The increase in life expectancy by one year lead on average to increase in CO2 emissions per capita 200 to 370 kilograms per capita, with average values of 260 kilograms per capita. It was found that energy consumption per capita is a factor that positively adds to the CO2 emissions per capita. Oil prices, and foreign direct investment came as statistically insignificant factors.Conclusions. Among the main policy reconditions are the promotion of energy efficiency policy in accordance with EU policies and programs that stimulate a reduction in energy consumption and consequently CO2 emissions per capita. The other measure is the promotion of less energy-intensive service sector instead of building up an industrial sector characterized by high energy and carbon intensity.

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