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Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions
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Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions (2020)Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Te…Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy (2014)Use (and abuse) of expert eli…Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in…Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts (2009)Reducing Overconfidence in th…The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe (2008)The Low Fertility Trap Hypoth…Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (2006)Vienna Yearbook of Population…Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006)Uncertain Judgements: Eliciti…Broken Limits to Life Expectancy (2002)Broken Limits to Life Expecta…The end of world population growth (2001)The end of world population g…Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population (2000)Beyond six billion : forecast…Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis (1999)Combining Probability Distrib…Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low (1994)Stochastic Population Forecas…Uncertainty (1990)UncertaintyCombining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography (1986)Combining Probability Distrib…Victims of Groupthink (1972)Victims of GroupthinkRange-frequency compromise in judgment. (1963)Range-frequency compromise in…Forecasting principles and practiceForecasting principles and pr…The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality (1979)Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity (1980)Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality (1992)A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century (2005)A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century (2005)Ageing populations: the challenges ahead (2009)World Development Indicators 2000 (2000)Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe (2004)Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture (2006)Advances in development reverse fertility declines (2009)Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty. (1969)Agreeing to Disagree (1976)Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. (1994)Trust Management for the Semantic Web (2003)Probabilistic Forecasting (2014)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)Communicating scientific uncertainty (2014)A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2017)Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict (2019)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies (2015)The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines (2015)The Combination of Forecasts (1969)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Constructing Probability Boxes and Dempster-Shafer Structures (2003)Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis (2012)Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow (2016)CONDUCTING INTERORGANIZATIONAL RESEARCH USING KEY INFORMANTS. (1993)The Influence of Top Management Team Heterogeneity on Firms' Competitive Moves (1996)A Relational View of Information Seeking and Learning in Social Networks (2003)A Comparison of ARIMA and LSTM in Forecasting Time Series (2018)The Performance of LSTM and BiLSTM in Forecasting Time Series (2019)Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions (2020)Risk Perception and Communication Unplugged: Twenty Years of Process1 (1995)Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods (2002)
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References

  • n.d.Forecasting principles and practice4,364 cited
  • 2002Broken Limits to Life Expectancy2,818 cited
  • 1972Victims of Groupthink2,379 cited
  • 1990Uncertainty1,711 cited
  • 2006Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities1,549 cited
  • 1986Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography1,007 cited
  • 2012Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science831 cited
  • 1999Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis824 cited
  • 2014Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy705 cited
  • 2001The end of world population growth642 cited
  • 2006Vienna Yearbook of Population Research424 cited
  • 2008The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe374 cited
  • 2009Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts351 cited
  • 2000Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population297 cited
  • 1994Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low277 cited
  • 1963

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Range-frequency compromise in judgment.
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