The Effect of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics

Hasan Murat Ertuğrul · B. Oray Güngör · Uğur Soytaş

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Market Dynamics and Volatility Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on volatility dynamics of the Turkish diesel market. We observe that a high volatility pattern starts around mid-April, 2020 and reaches its peak on 24/05/2020. This is due to the government imposed weekend curfews and bans on intercity travels. Two policy suggestions are provided. First is a temporary rearrangement of profit margins of dealers and liquid fuel distributors; and, second is a temporary tax regulation to compensate lost tax revenue.

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2002Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis 2010Modern macroeconomic models as tools for economic policy 2017Analysis and forecasting of the oil consumption in China based on combination models optimized by artificial intelligence algorithms

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