Dynamics in the polycentric development of Chinese cities, 2001-2016

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the polycentric development of 286 Chinese cities between 2001 and 2016. We identify each city’s population (sub)centers by detecting spatial autocorrelation patterns within population grids of the LandScan Dataset. The level of polycentricity of cities is reflected by the number of population subcenters and their share within the total center population. Our empirical results suggest that Chinese cities have generally become more polycentric, mainly evidenced by the increasing number of population subcenters in many cities. However, this trend toward polycentricity becomes somewhat less evident when measured by the subcenters’ share of the total center population. Moreover, this evolution toward polycentricity is heterogeneous. The most common pattern has been the development of new subcenters while maintaining a high subcenters’ share of the total center population. The possible mechanisms behind the different evolutions are briefly discussed with reference to topographic conditions, socioeconomic growth, and governmental interventions.

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