Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area

Michal Andrle · Jan Brůha · Serhat Solmaz

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Market Dynamics and Volatility Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro area business cycle.

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References

1999The Band Pass Filter 1979Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance 1999The Conquest of American Inflation 2009Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework 2003An Area Wide Model (Awm) for the Euro Area 1993Measuring Core Inflation 1994The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history 2010Modeling Inflation After the Crisis

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2019A Phillips Curve for the Euro Area

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