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Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
16 references·12 citing·45 second hop
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts (2016)Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Fo…When is a crowd wise? (2014)When is a crowd wise?The wisdom of select crowds. (2014)The wisdom of select crowds.Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics (2014)Big Data: New Tricks for Econ…Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness (2007)Probabilistic Forecasts, Cali…Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes (2007)Base-rate respect: From ecolo…Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006)Uncertain Judgements: Eliciti…The strategy of professional forecasting☆ (2006)The strategy of professional …Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle (2006)Intuitions About Combining Op…Combining Forecasts (2001)Combining ForecastsPrecision and accuracy of judgmental estimation (1997)Precision and accuracy of jud…Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off. (1995)Graininess of judgment under …Chapter 13 Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective (1995)Chapter 13 Financial decision…Combining Economic Forecasts (1986)Combining Economic ForecastsEvidential impact of base rates (1982)Evidential impact of base rat…Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 (1982)Calibration of probabilities:…The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments (1980)The base-rate fallacy in prob…The Role of Environmental Instability in Detecting and Responding to Signals of Impending Regime Shifts (2024)The Role of Environmental Ins…Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process (2024)Behavioral Biases in the Unce…Good cause, not so good business? Sales and operations performance of cause‐related marketing (2022)Good cause, not so good busin…Carbon price forecasting: a novel deep learning approach (2022)Carbon price forecasting: a n…Combining probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States (2021)Combining probabilistic forec…Optimal selection of heterogeneous ensemble strategies of time series forecasting with multi-objective programming (2020)Optimal selection of heteroge…Why do some combinations perform better than others? (2019)Why do some combinations perf…The Evolution of Forecast Density Combinations in Economics (2019)The Evolution of Forecast Den…Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective (2019)Probability Forecasts and The…Improving the forecasting performance of temporal hierarchies (2019)Improving the forecasting per…Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition (2019)Combining prediction interval…Combining Interval Forecasts (2017)Combining Interval ForecastsCausal schemas in judgments under uncertainty (1982)On the study of statistical intuitions (1982)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. 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References

  • 1982Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 19801,966 cited
  • 2007Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness1,774 cited
  • 2014Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics1,574 cited
  • 2006Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities1,549 cited
  • 1980The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments1,184 cited
  • 1982Evidential impact of base rates591 cited
  • 2007Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes410 cited
  • 2006Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle407 cited
  • 1995Chapter 13 Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective383 cited
  • 2001Combining Forecasts349 cited
  • 1986Combining Economic Forecasts341 cited
  • 2006The strategy of professional forecasting☆320 cited
  • 1995Graininess of judgment under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off.311 cited
  • 2014The wisdom of select crowds.265 cited
  • 1997Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation206 cited
  • 2014When is a crowd wise?184 cited

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  • 2019Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition47 cited
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  • 2022Good cause, not so good business? Sales and operations performance of cause‐related marketing15 cited
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  • 2024Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process1 cited