Abstract
ABSTRACT The paper first characterizes the predictable components in excess rates of returns on major equity and foreign exchange markets using lagged excess returns, dividend yields, and forward premiums as instruments. Vector autoregressions (VARs) demonstrate one‐step‐ahead predictability and facilitate calculations of implied long‐horizon statistics, such as variance ratios. Estimation of latent variable models then subjects the VARs to constraints derived from dynamic asset pricing theories. Examination of volatility bounds on intertemporal marginal rates of substitution provides summary statistics that quantify the challenge facing dynamic asset pricing models.
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1998How big is the premium for currency risk?1We thank Geert Bekaert, Tim Bollerslev, Peter Bossaerts, Mark Carhart, John Cochrane, Magnus Dahlquist, Wayne Ferson, Linda Goldberg, Campbell Harvey, Pierre Hillion, Robert Hodrick (the referee), Olivier Ledoit, John Matsusaka, Hans Mikkelsen, Angel Serrat and Ivo Welch, as well as workshop participants at INSEAD, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Southern California, University of Rochester, Southern Methodist University, University of California – Irvine, Koc University and participants at the 1996 UBC Global Investment Conference (Whistler, BC), 1996 Western Finance Association meetings (Sunriver, OR), 1996 European Finance Association meetings (Oslo, Norway), 1996 NBER Asset Pricing meeting (Evanston, IL), and the 1997 Econometric Society winter meetings (New Orleans, LA) for their comments. The paper was written while the second author was visiting the Anderson School at UCLA. Both authors acknowledge the financial support of a CIBEAR grant.12006Instability of return prediction models