Politicians’ Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery

Manuel F. Bagues · Berta Esteve-Volart

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Electoral Systems and Political Participation Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Media Influence and Politics

Abstract

Incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good. In this paper we explore the source of this correlation, exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the Spanish Christmas Lottery. Because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet, winners tend to be geographically clustered. This allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior. We find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provinces. The evidence is consistent with a temporary increase in happiness making voters more lenient toward the incumbent, or with a stronger preference for the status quo.

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References

1971Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964 1978The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President 2008How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries 2010Irrelevant events affect voters' evaluations of government performance 2005Estimating the Effect of Income on Health and Mortality Using Lottery Prizes as an Exogenous Source of Variation in Income 1990Economics and Elections 2011The Effects of Lottery Prizes on Winners and Their Neighbors: Evidence from the Dutch Postcode Lottery 2010Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

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