WHAT EXPLAINS THE RECENT JOBLESS RECOVERIES?

Irina Panovska

30 citations0/0 files storedMacroeconomic Dynamics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Theory and Policy Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper considers a correlated unobserved components (UC) model for output, employment, and hours in order to disentangle the causes for the last three jobless recoveries. The composition of the structural shocks during recessions and the periods immediately following recessions has changed, as have the responses of employment and hours to those shocks. The recessions before 1984 were followed by recoveries driven by positive permanent shocks to output, whereas the post-1984 recessions were followed by weak recoveries in demand. Employment is more sensitive to demand shocks post-1984, leading to weak recoveries in employment. In addition, hours and employment were complements before 1984, but are treated as substitutes after 1984. Much of the initial decrease in demand is now absorbed on the intensive margin

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n.d.Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?1996Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations 1999Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle 1982Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment 2012Disentangling the Channels of the 2007–09 Recession 2006Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s?2003Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?2012Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession

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