Fuzzy Sets and Models of International Relations

Abstract

Ambiguity and uncertainty are inherent in many historical alliances, decisions, and perceptions of International Relations (IR). Random factors, unreliable quantitative data, and inaccurate measurement do not cause all this qualitative fuzziness. Existing methods of statistical analysis and classical mathematical structures are ill equipped for modeling and analyzing this empirical real-world fuzziness. Zadeh's fuzzy sets theory provides a systematic framework for modeling qualitative fuzziness in foreign policy decision-making and international systems analysis. Basic fuzzy operations, linguistic variables, and fuzzy logic (viz., inference and algorithms) are explained informally with IR examples. Implications for theory building and computer simulation are discussed.

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