Articlediamond2012

OECD environmental outlook to 2050: the consequences of inaction

265 citations0/0 files storedInternational Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education

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Climate Change Policy and Economics Sustainable Development and Environmental Management Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy

Abstract

This book provides a detailed analyses of main economic, social and environmental trends for the world to 2050, and simulations of policy actions to address the key future challenges.Obviously humankind has witnessed unprecedented growth and prosperity in the last four decades, with the size of the world economy more than tripling and population increasing by over 3 billion people since 1970.This tremendous economic and population growth, however, has been accompanied by serious environmental degradation and natural resource depletion.The current growth model and the unsustainable use of natural resources could ultimately undermine future human development.The authors of this Outlook ask "What will the next four decades bring for the world?"Based on joint modelling by the OECD and the NEAA (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) it looks forward to the year 2050 to fi nd out what demographic and economic trends might aff ect the environment if the mankind does not adopt more ambitious green policies and technologies.It also looks at what policies could change that picture for the bett er future of the next generations.This publication focuses on four areas: climate change, biodiversity, water and health impacts of pollution.These key environmental challenges were identifi ed by the previous outlook to 2030 (OECD, 2008) as Red Light issues requiring urgent attention and decisive actions.By 2050, the Earth's population is expected to increase from 7 billion to over 9 billion and the world economy is projected to nearly quadruple, with growing demand for energy and natural resources.Average GDP growth rates are projected to slow in China and India.Nearly 70% of the world population is projected to be urban residents in 40 years time, magnifying challenges such as air pollution, transport congestion, and waste management.A

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