A New Evidential Reasoning Rule With Continuous Probability Distribution of Reliability

Abstract

Evidential reasoning (ER) rule has been widely used in dealing with uncertainty. As an important parameter to measure the inherent property of evidence, the evidence reliability makes the ER rule constitute a generalized reasoning framework. In current research of the ER rule, the evidence reliability tends to be expressed in the form of quantitative value by certain methods or expert knowledge. The single quantitative value lacks the ability to describe the statistical property of reliability, which leads to unreasonable results. In this article, a new ER rule with continuous probability distribution of reliability denoted by ERr-CR is proposed. The combination of two pieces of evidence is discussed in detail, where the reliability is profiled as random variables with specific probability distribution. To characterize the output of ERr-CR, a novel concept of expectation of the expected utility is proposed. In addition, the ERr-CR is expanded to multiple pieces of evidence to show its universality. Further, the basic performances of the ERr-CR are explored to illustrate the rationality. Moreover, a case study of safety assessment of natural gas storage tanks (NGSTs) is conducted to show the potential applications of ERr-CR, which makes the proposed method more practical.

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