The Impact of International Organizations on Chinese Trade as the Determiner of Trade: The Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the trade between China and 97 countries that have an important place in the bilateral trade of China in the period of 2008-2019 with the extended gravity model and to determine the determinants of trade. In the study, the potential impact of ASEAN and APEC member countries on Chinese trade was investigated, apart from the per capita incomes, populations and distances of the countries. In addition, the effect of energy imports required for industrial production on Chinese exports is also analyzed as another dummy variable for OPEC countries. Empirical results show that the GDP and population growth of dependent and independent countries are positively affected by trade, and as the distance increases, trade is negatively affected. The dummy coefficients of ASEAN, APEC and OPEC show that they are positive and statistically significant. Due to the fact that ASEAN and APEC consist of Asian countries and therefore are close to China, it has been observed that they are compatible with gravity model theory. The positive effect of OPEC member countries on Chinese exports was determined as importing the energy required for industrial production and converting intermediate goods into value-added products and exporting.

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