Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence from Pakistan

Nasim Shah Shirazi · Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap

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Global trade and economics Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic and Technological Innovation

Abstract

This paper re-investigates export-led growth hypothesis for Pakistan. The paper has employed cointegration and multivariate Granger Causality developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to study the long-run and short-run dynamics among exports growth, imports growth and real output growth over the period 1960 to 2003.The empirical results strongly support a long-run relationship among import, export and output growth. The paper finds feedback effect between import and output growth, and unidirectional causality from export to output growth. Nevertheless, this paper does not find any significant causality between import and export growth. Key Words: Export-led growth hypothesis, multivariate Granger Causality test,

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