Hybrid Process Models in Electrochemical Syntheses under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract

Chemical process engineering and machine learning are merging rapidly, and hybrid process models have shown promising results in process analysis and process design. However, uncertainties in first-principles process models have an adverse effect on extrapolations and inferences based on hybrid process models. Parameter sensitivities are an essential tool to understand better the underlying uncertainty propagation and hybrid system identification challenges. Still, standard parameter sensitivity concepts may fail to address comprehensive parameter uncertainty problems, i.e., deep uncertainty with aleatoric and epistemic contributions. This work shows a highly effective and reproducible sampling strategy to calculate simulation uncertainties and global parameter sensitivities for hybrid process models under deep uncertainty. We demonstrate the workflow with two electrochemical synthesis simulation studies, including the synthesis of furfuryl alcohol and 4-aminophenol. Compared with Monte Carlo reference simulations, the CPU-time was significantly reduced. The general findings of the hybrid model sensitivity studies under deep uncertainty are twofold. First, epistemic uncertainty has a significant effect on uncertainty analysis. Second, the predicted parameter sensitivities of the hybrid process models add value to the interpretation and analysis of the hybrid models themselves but are not suitable for predicting the real process/full first-principles process model’s sensitivities.

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