Coupling System-Based Spatiotemporal Variation and Influence Factors Analysis of City Shrinkage in Henan

Abstract

Urban shrinkage is an objective historical stage in the process of urban development, and it is also one of the challenges currently facing the process of China's new urbanization.Accurate identification of urban shrinkage is an important premise and foundation that is required to ensure sustainable urban development.Based on the coupling perspective, in this paper, a comprehensive urban shrinkage evaluation system was constructed from the three aspects of population, economy and society to measure the urban shrinkage that occurred in Henan province during the period from 2009 to 2018.Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the influencing factors.The results show that the overall shrinkage of Henan province is on the rise.Given the influence of economic foundations and market conditions, different cities in Henan province show different shrinkage rates.Urban shrinkage presents a pattern of high levels in the south and low levels in the north.The dependency ratio of the elderly population and the unemployment rate of the population have aggravated the shrinkage of the study cities.Urban population, birth rate, urban population density, GDP, per capita financial income, total investment in social fixed assets, proportion of tertiary industries, per capita road area, popularization rate of conventional gas, green coverage rate of built-up areas, amount of urban built-up area and population with a certain education level per 100,000 people were shown to restrain the shrinkage.This study provides a useful evaluation method for the determination of urban shrinkage.

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