Effects with Multiple Causes: Evaluating Arguments Using the Subjective Probability Model

Abstract

This study examines whether or not the subjective probability model accurately predicts the beliefs of an individual for circumstances of a single event with multiple causes. The mathematical model specified by the subjective probability model continues to provide some degree of prediction for beliefs prior to the exposure to a message. After exposure to a persuasive message, the model did not maintain the same level of accuracy of prediction. Several suggested explanations for this change are considered.

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