Quantitative Risk Assessment of LNG Terminal

Abstract

Abstract According to the report of Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology of Indonesia in 2019, it is stated that the demand for natural gas in Indonesia is predicted to increase from 1,516 Billions Standard Cubic Feet (BSCF) in 2017 to 4,723. BSCF or increase by an average of 3.5% per year in 2050. The most effective way in distributing natural gas nowadays is in the form of LNG. A national gas company together with a port company planned to build an LNG Terminal in a port area of Semarang, Central Java. This terminal will occupy the area based on the ultimate plan of the port which allocates the land expansion area of ± 5,200 m2 as liquid bulk area. The existing terminal is already being used as fuel storage for Methanol and High Speed Diesel (HSD). The designed LNG Terminal facilities consist of storage tanks with a capacity of 10,000 m3, LNG marine loading arm, filling stations, and equipped with jetty that capable to serve 22,000 m3 LNG vessel with length up to 160m. This paper addresses on the assessment of risk that may occur on the designed LNG Terminal. The risk assessment is carried out in several stages, beginning with identifying hazards using Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) followed by analysing the frequency of hazard using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) methods to find out the type potential hazards and its frequency. The next stage is the analysis of the consequences using fire modelling method is carried out. The level of risk is represented by mapping the result of frequency and the consequence analysis into f-N Curve according to UK-HSE. Mitigation by means of Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) is carried out if the risk is laid in unacceptable region.

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