Words Representing Numeric Probabilities in Medical Writing Are Ambiguous and Misinterpreted

Douglas E. Ott

8 citations0/0 files storedJSLS Journal of the Society of Laparoscopic & Robotic Surgeons

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Academic Writing and Publishing Patient-Provider Communication in Healthcare Statistical Methods in Epidemiology

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Words of estimative probability are used in medical writing. Authors know the number they intend the word to mean, readers do not. The objective of this study is to assess the variability of words having numeric meaning to medical doctors. DESIGN: A survey of 131 American trained MD's and DO's was done regarding their interpretation of 27 commonly used words of the estimative probability they placed on each word. METHODS: Statistical assessments were done to evaluate specific word meaning as a number or range to physicians and compared to each other's interpretation. RESULTS: For 19 of the 27 words had a 30% +/- (60% variance) of interpretation. Twenty-five of the 27 had less than 38% agreement on numeric meaning. Only two words had more than 74% numeric agreement. CONCLUSION: Words of estimative probability have widely varied interpretations to physicians. This makes interpretation of those words incomprehensible for scientific meaning resulting in communication without comprehension.

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References

2007Numeric, Verbal, and Visual Formats of Conveying Health Risks: Suggested Best Practices and Future Recommendations 1980Recertification: Will We Retreat?2005The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction: Report to the President of the United States 2010Science mapping analysis characterizes 235 biases in biomedical research 2008The Interpretation of 'Likely' Depends on the Context, But 70% is 70% - Right? The Influence of Associative Processes on Perceived Certainty 1999The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70%--right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty.1999The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70%—right? The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty.

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