What can stockouts tell us about inflation? Evidence from online micro data

Abstract

We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020–2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition evolved from temporary to more permanently discontinued products, concentrated in fewer sectors. We show that unexpected shocks to stockout levels have significant inflationary effects within three months. These effects are larger and more persistent for imported goods and import-intensive sectors. We develop a model of inventories in a sector facing both demand and cost disturbances, and use the observed joint dynamics of stockouts and prices to show that these effects can be associated with elevated costs of replenishing inventories and higher exposure to trade.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 41 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.