Failure to replicate the basic dilution effect in performance prediction

Abstract

Abstract A preregistered replication was conducted to examine the evidence for the basic dilution effect in a performance prediction context. Participants (n = 796) were presented with either diagnostic information alone or diagnostic + nondiagnostic information in a grade point average (GPA) prediction task. The diagnostic information was either indicative of a low GPA or a high GPA. The basic dilution effect predicts less extreme predictions when nondiagnostic information (e.g., the student describes himself as a cheerful person) is included with the diagnostic information. Despite an unusually large sample, a strong manipulation, and the use of stimulus sampling, results showed no evidence for dilution in GPA predictions. Reasons for the failure to replicate under optimal conditions are discussed.

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