Understanding Urban Area Attractiveness Based on Private Car Trajectory Data Using a Deep Learning Approach

Abstract

With the fast development of urbanization and motorization, an increasing number of people choose to buy private cars to fulfill their daily travel needs. In particular, many people from various positions of the city drive their cars to specified areas, and then they will stop and stay for a certain period of time, leading to a spatiotemporal evolution of urban area attractiveness (AA). In this paper, we aim at understanding urban AA based on analyses of private car trajectory datasets. Specifically, by extracting point-of-stop (PoS) data from the private car trajectories, we design the variational Bayesian Gaussian mixture models (VBGMM) to deduce the probability density distribution of PoSs and connect it to the variation of AA. We establish a deep learning model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) to capture the evolution of the AA. Furthermore, we integrate dropout in the LSTM method to address challenging issues such as overfitting and time-consuming training of complex neural networks in the AA prediction. We conduct experiments by using real-world private car trajectory data to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results validate that our proposed method outperforms existing ones in terms of various metrics. To the authors’ knowledge, our work is the first one to utilize private car trajectory data to study urban area attractiveness, thereby facilitating a new perspective regarding an understanding of human travel behavior and the evolution of urban mobility.

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