Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions

Abstract

Abstract Allowing delayed climate mitigation actions and overshoot of temperature targets requires large scale negative carbon emissions that may induce adverse side-effects on land, food and ecosystems in the second half of this century. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without net negative emissions inevitably needs the implementation of early and quick emissions reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near-term. Here we identify the implications of scenarios without a dependence on net-negative carbon emissions on land-use and food systems. We find that early climate actions without the reliance on net-negative carbon emissions have multiple benefits and trade-offs in land-use and food systems, and avoid the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land-use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, a reduced risk of hunger and lower water scarcity. At the same time, however, near-term mitigation pressure in the AFOLU sectors and the required land area for energy crops increases, resulting in additional agricultural intensification.

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