REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS: THE CASE OF THE INDONESIAN RUPIAH

Rasbin Rasbin · Mohamad Ikhsan · Beta Yulianita Gitaharie · Yoga Affandi

14 citations0/0 files storedBulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global trade and economics Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

This paper analyses the equilibrium price of the Indonesian Rupiah using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and assesses its misalignments. We find evidence of Rupiah misalignment, as the currency was undervalued for most periods, except for 1993-1996. This finding is robust across model specifications, predictors, and weighting. Our finding implies that keeping the exchange rate at its equilibrium level is ideal, and that policymakers can take advantage of the undervalued currency to promote economic growth via exports.

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References

2003The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country 2014Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method 2008The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth 2003Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?2016The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation 1995Empirical research on nominal exchange rates 2005Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance 2013The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review

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