Research on the Market Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles in China Based on the Generalized Bass Model

Abstract

As a new energy vehicle, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have the advantages of pollution-free and zero-emission, which have attracted wide attention from all over the world. By predicting the ownership of FCVs, decision-makers can grasp the future development potential of FCVs, so that the national government can adopt corresponding policies and measures. To this end, based on analyzing the development trend of FCVs, this article proposes an FCVs ownership prediction method based on the generalized Bass model. From the perspective of technology, application, and market conditions of FCVs, this article first analyzes the development trend of FCVs in the future, which provides the basis for the establishment of the ownership prediction method and the estimation of model parameters. Then, considering the influence of levelized cost of driving (LCD) reduction and hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) constructions, a prediction method of FCVs ownership based on the generalized Bass model is proposed, and the model parameters are estimated by Grey Verhulst model, electric vehicles data, and liquefied natural gas vehicles data. Through the proposed method, the ownership of FCVs in China from 2021 to 2070 is predicted and the results show that the ownership of FCVs in China will reach about 1.43 million in 2030 and about 10.41 million in 2040. Finally, through sensitivity analysis, this article discusses the influence of external factors such as policy, LCD, and HRSs on the market diffusion of FCVs, and puts forward corresponding suggestions.

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