Fuzzy Bayesian estimation and consequence modeling of the domino effects of methanol storage tanks

Abstract

In this study, a fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) approach was proposed to analyze the domino effects of pool fire. Failure probabilities were calculated using triangular fuzzy numbers, the combined center of area (CoA)/sum-product method and the BN approach. Consequence modeling, probit equations and leaky-noisy-OR (L-NOR) gates were used to analyze the domino effects, and modify conditional probability tables (CPTs). Methanol storage tanks were selected to confirm the practical feasibility of the suggested method. The domino probability using bow-tie analysis (BTA) and FBN in the first and second levels was compared, and the ratio of variation was used for sensitivity analysis. Probability of the domino effect in the first and second levels (FBN) was 0.0071472631 and 0.0090630640, respectively. The results confirm this method is a suitable tool for analyzing the domino effects and that using FBN and L-NOR gate is a good way to assess the reliability of tanks.

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