Proceedings of workshop I in advanced topics in risk and reliability analysis. Model uncertainty: Its characterization and quantification

Abstract

The purpose of the workshop series is to provide a forum for in-depth discussion of key problems in risk and reliability analysis, and the development of solution strategies to attack these problems. The workshop topics are selected by an international organizing committee. Special emphasis is placed on risk and reliability problems that are: important, timely, difficult to resolve without further research, and in need of expert input to formulate structured research agendas to assist timely and efficient resolution. The topic of model uncertainty fits all of these criteria. Model uncertainties have been acknowledged as being extremely important in a wide variety of risk assessment application areas, including nuclear power plant risk assessments, radioactive waste repository performance assessments, human health risk assessments, and environmental risk assessments. Clearly, a risk study that neglects to provide a careful treatment of model uncertainties can provide decision makers with a distorted picture of the uncertainties in the study`s results. The papers and working group reports contained in these proceedings are divided into three sections. The first section contains papers discussing the appropriate formalism for delaying with model uncertainty. The second section of the proceedings contains papers discussing problems in coping with model uncertainties and approachesmore » for dealing with these problems. The third section of the proceedings contains the summaries of the three working groups. Group 1 deals with the implications of model uncertainty on decision making (including regulatory applications), Group 2 deals with the formal definition of model uncertainty, and Group 3 deals with approaches to quantify model uncertainty. Selected papers were indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.« less

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