The scenario-planning handbook : a practitioner's guide to developing and using scenarios to direct strategy in today's uncertain times

Abstract

Part 1: THE NATURE AND USES OF SCENARIOS. Chapter 1: Why Bother? The extent of uncertainty-and dilemma it poses: focus or flexibility? The need for foresight-but dangers of (single-point) forecasting. Scenarios as an escape from dilemma-what they are, and are not. The benefits of scenario-based planning and action. Part 2: INITIAL STEPS. Chapter 2: Preparing Way. Assessing current planning culture. Understanding scenarios: what they are-what they require how they can be used. Designing effort and approach to fit need (e.g., decision(s) to be supported information and resources needed time available etc. Defining realistic expectations. Getting top managements support. Chapter 3: Getting Started. Assigning responsibilities. Forming team. Using consultants? Determining initial focus/use for scenarios. Defining scope and time horizon. Chapter 4: Laying Foundation. Identifying key decision factors (i.e., What we need to know about future in order to make decision). Identifying and assessing range of macro- and micro-forces that will shape dynamics of future environment. Identifying and assessing critical uncertainties. Part 3: DEVELOPING AND USING SCENARIOS. Chapter 5: Building Scenarios. How many scenarios should you create? Structuring scenarios (the use of scenario logics). Telling stories (the importance of the plot). Assigning graphic titles. The question of quantification. The issue of probabilities. Chapter 6: Implementation -- From Scenarios to Strategy. Assessing opportunities and threats. Linking scenarios to other planning tools (e.g., value chain analysis). Testing current (or proposed) strategy. Developing-and assessing-strategy options. Contingency planning. Part 4: CONSEQUENCES OF SCENARIOS. Chapter 7: Leveraging Scenarios. Communicating results. Motivating action. Linking scenarios to scanning and monitoring (a comprehensive environmental analysis system). Chapter 8: Changing Culture. Developing an educational program (to change behavior). Creating a learning organization. The critical importance of executive example.

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