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This dissertation expands both the theoretical and empirical study of marketing decision making by studying complex managerial decision making in the context of an original research design based on the Markstrat2 simulation. A model is developed which expands the concept of cognitive complexity; the model is then tested in a complex and realistic decision situation. The design involved a quasi-experimental setting in a 2 x 2 factorial design with a sample consisting of sixty-four University of Michigan MBA students recruited after they had played Markstrat2 in the marketing strategy class. Thus, subjects were considered "experienced" managers in this particular industry. Because the case study stimuli were independent, subjects responded to two of the four cells in the design, yielding an effective sample size of 128. Analysis was conducted primarily through an examination of structural equations models via the Partial Least Squares algorithm. The model clarifies some confusion in the literature by explicitly separating the general notion of cognitive complexity into two moe specific constructs: (1) Generalized Complexity (GC)--an overall assessment of aptitude for complex thinking, and (2) Task-Specific Complexity (TSC)--the amount of complex processing expressed in a particular task situation. Data support the hypothesized three-stage nature of cognitive complexity (GC $\to$ TCS $\to$ Performance). The model also examined the impact of environmental complexity of TSC and confirms that this relationship is bell shaped--after some point managers revert to simple heuristics in order to deal with information overload. Support was also provided for Interactive Complexity Theory which notes that individual and environmental characteristics interact to produce specific levels of information-processing performance. In addition, the model clarified the basic premise in the cognitive literature that increased cognitive complexity leads to greater "performance" by showing that the relationship between TSC and "performance" differs by decision task. Finally, we show that some key success factors for marketing decision making appear to be creativity, analytical ability, and a knowledge of the "rules" of the game. Outside experience had little impact on performance.
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