Some thoughts on the nature of the demographic ‘crisis’ of the second century B.C

Abstract

One of the most interesting debates conducted by ancient historians in recent years concerns the development of the Italian population during the last two centuries of the Republic.On the one hand, there are the so-called low-counters, who reckon with a free Italian population of roughly 4 million in the time of Augustus.On the other hand, we have the high-counters, who think that there were more than 13 million people of citizen status in 28 B.C. and who estimate the free and unfree population of early-imperial Italy at approximately 15 million.1 Since these two rival scenarios imply very different interpretations of the demographic and agrarian 'crisis' lying behind the Gracchan land reforms, the importance of this debate for those who are interested in the history of second-century B.C. Italy does not need to be underlined.Most of the low-counters have tended to accept the picture of inexorable demographic decline that is found in Appian and in Plutarch. 1 The most important contributions are: E. Lo Cascio, 'The Size of the Roman Population: Beloch and the Meaning of the Augustan Census Figures', Journal of Roman Studies 84 (1994), 23-40; W. Scheidel, Measuring Sex, Age and Death in the Roman Empire.Explorations in Ancient Demography (Ann Arbor 1996), 167-168; E. Lo Cascio, 'The Population of Roman Italy in Town and Country', in J.L. Bintliff and K. Sbonias (eds.),Reconstructing Past Population Trends in Mediterranean Europe (3000 B.C.-A.D. 1800) (Oxford 1999), 161-171; idem, 'Recruitment and the Size of the Roman Population from the Third to the First Century B.C.E.', in W. Scheidel (ed.), Debating Roman Demography (Leiden 2001), 111-137; N. Morley, 'The Transformation of Italy, 225-28 B.C.', Journal of Roman Studies 91 (2001), 50-62; E. Lo Cascio and P. Malanima, 'Cycles and Stability.Italian Population before the Demographic Transition (225 B.C.-A.D. 1900)', in Rivista di Storia Economica 21 (2005) 5-40; and G. Kron, 'The Augustan Census Figures and the Population of Italy', Athenaeum 93 (2005) 441-495.Cf. also L. de Ligt, 'Poverty and Demography: the Case of the Gracchan Land Reforms', Mnemosyne 57 (2004), 725-757.As Scheidel 1996, op.cit., 167, points out, the Augustan censuses are unlikely to have comprised more than 90 per cent of those who should have been registered.This means that Lo Cascio's reading of the census À gure for 28 B.C. actually implies a citizen population of ca. 15 million (of whom 1.25 might be assigned to the provinces; see Lo Cascio 1999, op.cit., 164) and an Italian population (including slaves) of roughly 17 million.This is larger than the Italian population at any time before A.D.

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