Backing into decisions: A study of thresholds in decision-making

Abstract

Strategic decisions involving mergers and acquisitions often hinge on one or two critical evaluations. Similarly, when hiring a new manager, potential candidates are often rejected if they are lacking on a critical dimension. In my dissertation, I examined the way in which these critical dimensions are used to screen decision alternatives. Specifically, I am examining the nature of Image Theory's violation and rejection thresholds (the compatibility test) in the screening and elimination of undesirable decision options. In contrast to traditional decision theory, which focuses on choice (i.e., maximization of expected value), recent studies suggest that pre-choice screening of options may account for the greater part of one's decision activities and that choice serves merely to select the best of the options that survive screening. The point of the present research is to explore the variables that influence decision makers' appraisal of option compatibility. For example, I determined one such variable as the "killer variable", which is a feature of an option that is extreme in nature (wholly unacceptable or acceptable) to the decision maker. Its inclusion, regardless of the attractiveness of the rest of the option's features, counteracts usual decisions. My research also determined that individual features have the ability to effect the rejection, as well as the violation, threshold. My research tests this and similar hypotheses about screening.

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