A Replication and Extension of the Inducement of the Availability Heuristic

Abstract

Abstract : The availability of an event in an observer's memory is postulated to be one of the bases for estimates of its frequency of past occurrence or the probability of future occurrence. In a previous study, enhancing every occurrence of an event produced an overestimation of frequency and probability estimations and predictive choices. However, the general finding of overestimation held only for events at the low (3/225) and high (30/225) ends of the test range; in the middle range (12/225) judgments were fairly accurate. The present study sought to replicate the availability bias induced in the previous study and to explore the underlying cognitive processes by manipulating the conditions used to induce the bias. Originator-supplied keywords include: Case studies; Decision making; Statistical analysis; Emergencies; Crisis management; Ambulances; Frequency, Police; Events; and Occurrences.

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