Social and economic development and the fertility transitions in mainland China and Taiwan.

Abstract

This study examines how factors associated with social and economic development in Taiwan and China have operated independently and together to influence fertility change. This issue is addressed cross-sectionally by using sub-regional data for the counties and provinces of China for 1982 1990 and 1995; and for the counties and cities of Taiwan for 1980 1990 and 1995. The results of the analyses provide general support for the relevance of social and economic development as an explanation for fertility decline. Although the results are not uniform regarding the influence of a single development variable they support the hypothesis that among the provinces and counties of both countries higher levels of social and economic development are associated with lower fertility rates. Overall these results provide confirming evidence that a social and economic development-based theory of fertility decline as represented by the broader theory of demographic transition continues to have considerable relevance for understanding variation in fertility among the subregions of China and Taiwan.

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